PUC 59142 item 23: Tier 1 is grandfathered, Tier 2 avoids double-collateralization, Tier 3 carries the new $/MW stack.
Cliff base case is Jul 10 prospective, the operator-coalition position.
Default 4 - typical EEA frequency in non-extreme years.
Live result
Do not enrollMW firm (LPC)
200 MW
MW expected (p50)
484 MW
-3%
MW p90
468 MW
-6%
Why
6 of 6 PGRR144/NOGRR282 model checks are missing. Approval-to-energize is gated on these.
West hub (Midland-Odessa): Wind/solar-export adjacent. Dispatch-down is common but less severe than the Panhandle.
Curtail cost
$704k/MW-yr
Net value
-$654k/MW-yr
Tier 1 coverage
33%
Heuristic v1. Hub presets approximate ERCOT congestion patterns; not a nodal model. Cites PGRR145, NPRR1325, PUCT 58481 Item 122, Workshop #7, PGRR144, NOGRR282, and PUCT Projects 58479/58480/58482/58484/58777/59142.
BYOG envelope
No BYOG modeled. Set Grid import cap > 0 to evaluate the self-limiting facility path.
Financial commitment (PFP base case)
Intermediate-stage security
$50k/MW x 500 MW = $25.0M
Non-refundable IA fee
$50k/MW x 500 MW = $25.0M
Total commitment
$50.0M
Refundable @ 80%
$20.0M
PUCT Staff Apr 29: studied-load paths get up to 80% return; no direct-interconnection-cost security required to enter Batch Zero.
Transmission-cost architectures (PUC 58484)
| Architecture | $/MWh | Annual MTC | Term | MTC total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A - 12CP + light MTCCliff base 12CP | $4/MWh | $7.5M | 5 yr | $37.5M |
| B - 5/6CP + heavy MTC 5/6CP | $6/MWh | $11.3M | 10 yr | $112.5M |
| C - Oncor take-or-pay Capacity-based | $0/MWh | $30.0M | 10 yr | $300.0M |
| D - NRG residential cap Variable | $10/MWh | $0 | - | $0 |
Annual energy stream assumes 65% load factor. Source set: PUC 58484 Staff draft and items 88, 89, 95, 96, 101, 105, 110, 113, 115.
Paid-DR revenue (PUC 58482)
Offer cap midpoint
$22500/MWh
Events / hours
4 x 3.5 hr
Performance tier
below-85-squared
Expected annual revenue
$56.7M
Upper bound
TIEC item 19 per-MW-event upper bound.
$200.0M
PUC 58482 TIEC item 19 midpoint: $20-25K/MWh offer cap, 3.5 hr events, tiered performance penalty.
Realization-discounted MW
Load class
Data Center
Historical baseline
49.8%
Expected realization
37.8%
Discounted MW
189 MW
Gap vs request
Requested nameplate minus realization-discounted MW.
311 MW
Cites 16 TAC Section 25.370(e)(2)(B): 49.8% data-center baseline, 55.4% officer-letter baseline, plus Eolic-tier maturity adjustment.
Geographic-distortion advisory
Classification
Remote Radial
Representation delta
-30%
Your region is over-represented in legacy studies relative to where AI load wants to site. Treat this as advisory, not a hard block.
Agentic 59142 item 28 flags remote and radial regions as over-represented in legacy studies relative to AI-load siting preference; ERCOT TAC March 26 distribution data is the comparison anchor.
BYOG eligibility flag
Flagged
No
Pathway
llis-batch-zero
No BYOG configuration is modeled. The site remains on the standard LLIS / Batch Zero path.
PCLR dispatch profile
Expected dispatch-down (p50)
469 hrs/yr
Stress-case dispatch-down (p90)
939 hrs/yr
Break-even dispatch-down
Above this, the firm queue beats PCLR economics.
33 hrs/yr
Required flex MW for full coverage
Paired-asset MW that fully absorbs the non-firm portion.
300 MW
Filing readiness - gaps
6 of 6 checks missing. Approval-to-Energize is gated on these.
8-step PCLR workflow (Workshop #7)
On the July 24 information date.
Sources